First of all, this isn’t a pro-Trump piece, nor is it anti-Trump for that matter. What this is about is to say that perhaps, there’s more than what meets the eye with the bust-up with Zelenskyy. Needless to say, Zelenskyy’s White House visit was hardly a shining example of diplomacy - having a raging row in front of the press is…bold. The question then is; is Trump a pro-Putin president? Not really. He may admire Putin’s power in Russia, but he knows full well that Russia is a long-term foe of the US and his America First mantra is genuine. So why the fallout with Zelenskyy? Trump’s aims with Ukraine are likely two-fold. He knows that the real enemy is China. American diplomacy and its military are strewn around every corner of the globe. He realises just how thinly spread the US is right now. They must regroup and focus their efforts on the big game; the pacific. Bringing an end to the Ukraine war would help the US refocus its efforts, even if this peace is temporary. This is the first and most immediate aim.
The second could be the reason behind events in the Oval Office. Trump among many things has a gripe about how much Europe relies on American power in NATO. He believes that we Europeans have been having a free ride on Uncle Sam’s nickel, for which, to be honest, he’s kind of right. The UK remains a formidable military power but we simply cannot ignore that our military has been subjected to death by a thousand cuts. We may make a song and dance about our values, but these mean sod all if we cannot defend them - something many in our political class appear to have forgotten.
Trump may then have made an important power play in humiliating Zelenskyy. He may genuinely dislike Zelenskyy, he may actually believe many of the things he said. But, perhaps, Trump’s eye is not entirely on Ukraine. He’s looking at the bigger picture. And it’s already bearing fruit. The European powers are gnashing their teeth and banging their hands on the table over what Trump and Vance said, but let’s be honest, it’s ignited the drive to rearm. Unsure of American protection, European militaries are beginning to realise that they need to pull their weight. Also, interestingly for those who suggested British power would become irrelevant following Brexit, the UK has found itself in an interesting, and very influential position. We have always been the bridge between the US and mainland Europe, but the Ukraine issue has highlighted this more than anything else. When the war began, we were the ones setting the example with France following close behind, and Germany much further behind. Now we are at it again by playing devil's advocate.
This however cannot distract us from the fact that we too are lagging militarily. We must rearm like our lives depend on it - because they do. Francis Fukuyama declared that history ended in 1992 with the fall of the Soviet Union and the triumph of the liberal democracies. Well, history has returned with a vengeance, but we are just not ready. Trump then, for all his gusto and shouting, maybe the dose of reality we desperately need. A mad genius or just madness, only time will tell.
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