The Centre-Right Conundrum

Reform or Die

For those centre-right thinkers involved in political discord, there seems to be a niggling question buried, yet trying to reach the surface. Whether the Conservative Party continue to be the standard bearer for centre-right opinions in British politics.

With the ability to capture and cajole the media on topics which naturally get a positive reaction from the silent majority, Reform UK is surging in the polls. But is this relatively new outfit, borne out of the Brexit Party and before that UKIP, set to replace the Tories entirely?

Some may have already answered this question internally, but I have yet to see such an argument put forward which does not rely on either tribal instincts or longevity. For many, there isn’t a properly articulated position either way – with status quo thinking succeeding in planting feet so far.

But given the ability of Nigel Farage to constantly gain media attention, it’s a question which needs an answer.

Yes, we’ve seen so called ‘defectors’ of late – Andrea Jenkyns the former MP for Morley and Outwood followed by Tim Montgomerie, a long-standing Conservative voice. But are their moves a turning point or an indication of the frustration felt by members and activists from within the Conservative ranks who now have what they believe to be an avenue to vent?

Switching to Reform is no small move. Both gained a reaction in their own right, albeit different depending on the audience. Because whilst some may have been dismissive, others have started to question their own position. And for those still in contemplation mode we need a proper discussion. Not only to cement internal thinking but also as any future Conservative message needs this foundation to go out to the country with.

So again, I ask, who is the real standard bearer for centre-right opinions in British politics?

As a Conservative Councillor, Chairman of an Association and Parliamentary candidate in this year’s General Election, my position would seem clear. But titles mean nothing and what matters is the future of our country. Because the very issue on which Reform’s popularity is centred is the very issue which will matter even more to my 18 month old son. This matters to people.

Those who occasionally glance at the political show business promoted by a 24-hour news cycle, and who are sick of mainstream politics, are rightly going to be tempted to believe that Nigel Farage’s new outfit has at least some of the answers on this.

But is that the case? Does Reform actually have the ability to replace the Tories? And should they be taken seriously in the new claim that they might just be in charge of the country in 4 years’ time? Whilst seriously unlikely, all of it remains to be seen. But it does leave those of us on the centre-right with a question. A question of strategic importance.

It's why we need to properly delve into that question without fear of the answer. Because the future of our country literally depends on it.

We have, as a nation, ground to a halt. Beset by those who prioritise the take, we are stifled on every front. Social cohesion is hanging on by a thread. Separate interest groups lobby and succeed in acquiring deeply unpopular policies under the guise of every moral crusade.

It is within this context that the likes of Reform benefit. They are a symptom with which if we are honest with ourselves, the Conservative Party has, along with Labour, helped to create.

It is why Kemi is so right to speak of renewal. Because it perfectly sums up what is required for the Conservative Party and the Country. 

Whether you love or loathe Nigel Farage, it cannot be denied that when a vacuum appears, he’s there, playing such a prominent role that he’s now a household name. Right now is prime time for a man possessing his talents. Over the last 15 years, he’s skilfully influenced and shaped public opinion in a way which is secretly envied by those involved in politics.

Left without proper leadership and a clear sense of what the vast majority of the country wants to see – outside of the special interest groups, the big business lobbyists, the friends of friends which infects politics, Farage is ready. Ever the great orator practised over a lifetime campaigning against the grain.

But is this alone enough to make the switch and throw away an organisation that has produced the likes of Churchill and Thatcher? Because whilst leaders have come and gone (too frequently in recent times), the Conservative Party has always been bigger than any one of them. It’s the party’s biggest strength.

That same sentence cannot be said for Reform in any way. Without Farage they are nothing. Like UKIP or the Brexit Party, devoid of their main man, they would crumble, divide and be seen as nothing more than an old vehicle of his. That cannot be a basis for any political party. Not least one which could take the reins of Government. Winning 5 MPs this year was an achievement. But taking the remaining 319 to form the next Government would turn Farage into a political stretch Armstrong.

Granted the tactics one would have you buy into are the tactics used by Trump in the US, even Macron with his En Marche party in France. But these are under Presidential systems completely dissimilar to ours. Having one ‘supreme’ leader within the UK system can lead to nothing more than armies of drones. These are the very career politicians people are sick of.

In Reform’s case, who would fill the ranks? Maybe you? But if you find yourself getting itchy feet about the Conservatives and entertaining this notion, then imagine Reform without Farage.

The worst would be the split. A never-ending Labour dominance would emerge. There are many reasons to stick with the Conservatives. But the promise of seeing your political ideas gain greater success with Reform is not one of them.

The only reform I am choosing is the reform of the Conservatives led by Kemi.